Tracking global trends. How six key developments are shaping the business world
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Mai 2011 |
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ERNST & YOUNG S.R.L. |
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The new math: six global trends, three key drivers
Last year's global trends report, Business redefined, reflected the impact of the financial crisis. In 2010, the global financial system remained fragile, but economies around the world began moving toward recovery. Some, especially those in emerging markets, hardly broke stride, continuing their rapid growth.
Tracking global trends looks at six broad, long-term developments that are shaping our world:
1. Emerging markets increase their global power
Today, emerging markets serve as the world's economic growth engine, and the far-reaching effects of their spectacular rise continue to play out. But their risks are often downplayed. Therefore, taking advantage of emerging-market opportunities requires careful planning.
2. Cleantech becomes a competitive advantage
Governments and organizations are announcing plans to shrink their carbon footprints. The move to cleantech may represent a second industrial revolution that will have effects as great as the first.
3. Global banking seeks recovery through transformation
The global financial system remains in flux. The uncertain landscape poses both opportunities and risks for financial institutions, alternative asset managers and other enterprises that need funding to meet growth objectives.
4. Governments enhance ties with the private sector
The past year has been one of readjustment between developed and emerging economies, between the public and private sectors and between global institutions and nations. These adjustments will continue as governments, organizations and institutions define their roles in the post-crisis world.
5. Rapid technology innovation creates a smart, mobile world
Smart technology offers the promise of remote access to health care and education, while blurring boundaries between industries. The power of the individual will grow and new competitors will emerge, disrupting industries and creating new business models.
6. Demographic shifts transform the global workforce
Never before has demographic change happened so quickly. Global employers face the challenge that, despite a growing global population, they will soon have to recruit from a shrinking workforce due to an aging population.
Global economies are so tightly interconnected that companies, governments and industries will soon be forced to cooperate in ways we could not have imagined just a few years ago. In fact, Ernst & Young believes the six trends are themselves connected by three underlying drivers that have helped establish each trend and perpetuate it.
1. Demographic shifts
Population growth, increased urbanization, a widening divide between countries with youthful and quickly aging populations and a rapidly growing middle class are reshaping not only the business world, but also society as a whole.
2. Reshaped global power structure
As the world recovers from the worst recession in decades, the rise of relationships between the public and private sectors has shifted the balance of global power faster than most could have imagined just a few years ago.
3. Disruptive innovation
Innovations in technology continue to have massive effects on business and society. We’re now seeing emerging markets become hotbeds of innovation, especially in efforts to reach the growing middle class and low-income consumers around the globe.
SIX GLOBAL TRENDS INTERCONNECTED BY THREE KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Emerging markets increase their global power
As the greatest hope for growth in the global economy for the past two years, the emerging markets have become the darlings of the financial press and a favorite talking point of C-suite executives worldwide.
Once attractive only for their natural resources or as a source of cheap labor and low-cost manufacturing, emerging markets are now seen as promising markets in their own right. Rapid population growth, sustained economic development and a growing middle class are making many companies look at emerging markets in a whole new way.
As the emerging markets rise, so do their companies. Many companies that had previously posed no competitive threat to multinational corporations now do so. These emerging market leaders represent a major shift in the global competitive landscape — a trend that will only strengthen as they grow in size, establish dominance and seek new opportunities beyond their traditional domestic and near-shore markets.
In particular, we see the following trends ahead:
Leading emerging markets will continue to drive global growth
Estimates show that 70% of world growth over the next few years will come from emerging markets, with China and India accounting for 40% of that growth. Adjusted for variations in purchasing power parity, the ascent of emerging markets is even more impressive: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the total GDP of emerging markets could overtake that of the developed economies as early as 2014.
The forecasts suggest that investors will continue to invest in emerging markets for some time to come. The emerging markets already attract almost 50% of foreign direct investment (FDI) global inflows and account for 25% of FDI outflows. The brightest spots for FDI continue to be Africa, the Middle East, and Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRICs), with Asian markets of particular interest at the moment. By 2020, the BRICs are expected to account for nearly 50% of all global GDP growth. Securing a strong base in these countries will be critical for investors seeking growth beyond them.
