Shopping centre development report
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Mai 2011 |
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CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD ROMANIA S.R.L. |
Adresa
Strada Dr. Nicolae Staicovici, Nr. 2
Cladirea Opera Center, Etaj 4
Bucureşti, Sector 5
Telefon
+40-21-408.03.00
Fax
+40-21-408.03.01
Website
www.cushmanwakefield.com
OVERVIEW
Shopping centre development remained subdued in 2010, with completion levels falling for the second consecutive year. Around 5.2 million sqm GLA was completed in Europe over the course of the year, a 30% decline on 2009. This represents the lowest annual completion level since 2004, as well as the sharpest decline in development since 1983. In total, 165 new shopping centres opened in 2010, representing 83% of new space, with refurbishments and extensions accounting for the remainder. Total shopping centre GLA now stands at more than 131.9 million sqm forthe whole of Europe.
Development is expected to pick up in 2011, with 6.9 million sqm of new shopping centre space scheduled for completion before the end of the year. This represents a 33% increase on 2010. However, several countries have seen major projects postponed from 2010 to 2011, and further delays cannot be ruled out. At present, around 4.5 million sqm GLA is scheduled for completion in 2012, although reliable forecasts for 2012 and beyond are difficult given the uncertain economic climate in some European markets.
MARKET SIZE
Central and Eastern Europe is forecast to account for 63% of the 2011/12 development pipeline. Russia and Turkey continue to top the pipeline “league table”. Indeed, their combined 2011/12 pipeline accounts for over 40% of the European total. Large increases in development are predicted in both markets in 2011. In Russia alone, more than 3 million sqm GLA is currently scheduled for completion in 2011/12. This includes several schemes which were on hold and have recently been revived. Around 600,000 sqm is due to be delivered in Moscow, with the remainder of the pipeline focused on other major cities. However, some of the schemes scheduled for 2011/12 may not be delivered on time, and the pipeline may contract as projects are delayed or put on hold. In Turkey, nearly 1.8 million sqm of new space is expected to be completed before the end of 2012. Development is firmly focused on Istanbul, which accounts for almost 60% of the pipeline. However, it is worth noting that several schemes were put on hold in the last six months of 2010, including the 125,000 sqm Forum Antalya.
In Western Europe, Italy and France remain at the top of the pipeline table. Around one million sqm of new space is scheduled to open in Italy before the end of 2012. Whilst the Italian 2011/12 pipeline figures are significantly higher than the 2010 development total, several projects have recently been postponed from 2011 to 2012 and further delays are a distinct possibility. France, meanwhile, is expected to see a rebound in development after a subdued performance in 2010, with more than 890,000 sqm scheduled for completion in 2011/12. The focus remains on smaller shopping centres. Indeed, the average size of pipeline schemes is less than 16,000 sqm, with only two large projects (over 40,000 sqm) due to open before the end of 2012. In addition, around 40% of the French pipeline currently comprises extensions and redevelopments of existing schemes. Spain, Poland, and Germany have held on to their positions near the top of the pipeline table, but are likely to see annual completion levels decline in 2011. The UK, on the other hand, is expected to see a small increase in development in the year ahead. However, the UK pipeline figures are skewed by the 176,500 sqm Stratford City scheme, the largest pipeline scheme in Europe, currently under construction and scheduled to open in London before the end of the year.
OVERVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT IN 2010
Activity picked up in the second half of the year with the opening of around 3 million sqm of new space. This brought the European completion total for 2010 to 5.2 million sqm. Development declined by 30% relative to 2009, with much of Europe, including most Central and Eastern European markets, recording significant reductions in completion levels. Average shopping centre provision per 1,000 population across the EU-27 now stands at 235.4 sqm. In line with previous years, Central and Eastern Europe accounted for the majority of new space opened in 2010, both in the second half (65%) and over the year as a whole (63%). This is mainly due to continuing strong development levels in Russia, Turkey, Poland and Bulgaria.
The largest scheme completed in the last six months of 2010 and over the year as a whole was the City-Park Grad shopping centre in Voronezh, in South-Western Russia. The 144,300 sqm scheme, developed by Voronezhskaya Developerskaya Kompaniya, opened in August and is the largest shopping centre in Russia outside Moscow.
KEY TRENDS ACROSS EUROPE
Russia recorded the highest development total of all of the markets covered and accounts for a quarter of the new space opened in Europe in 2010. 916,000 sqm GLA was completed in the second half, bringing the 2010 development total to more than 1.3 million sqm. Whilst this represents a 26% decline in annual completion relative to 2009, it nevertheless amounts to a 13% increase in floorspace. With the opening of City-Park Grad and three other schemes, Voronezh accounted for 19% of new GLA. However, development activity remains firmly focused on Moscow, with 29% of new GLA located in the capital.
In terms of percentage growth in floorspace, Bulgaria tops the chart. The opening of seven new schemes brings total GLA added in 2010 to nearly 290,000 sqm. This represents a 139% increase in shopping centre space on the previous year, and has been a boon for incoming retailers. However, some new schemes have struggled to match their business plan, with many retailers still cautious about expansion. Several pipeline projects have been put on hold, and development is expected to slow significantly in 2011 and 2012.
Many other Central and Eastern European markets also recorded significant increases in floorspace, despite the general slowdown in development activity. Slovakia and Croatia saw provision increase by more than 20%, while Serbia, Ukraine, Romania, Turkey, Slovenia and Bosnia Herzegovina experienced growth of between 7% and 12%. Poland, with the addition of 350,000 sqm GLA, saw provision increase by more than 5%.
