Focus FX Currency Forecast

22 Septembrie 2011

RAIFFEISEN BANK S.A.

 

Trading Ideas

Note: This list contains only the strongest trading ideas for the markets that we cover. Therefore not every marketforecast that implies a buy recommendation is also listed as a trading idea! Trading ideas may also differ fromour quarterly forecasts. as the time horizon can be different. The time horizon of the trade is at least two weeks.but not more than 3 months.

 

EUR/USD

The sovereign debt crisis is back in the limelight in the Eurozone. Risk premiums of Spain and Italy have climbed to dangerously high levels again, despite the bond purchases of the ECB, and yields on Greek government bonds are essentially setting new records every day (yields on short-dated bonds were recently around 60%!). And the hurdles that Greece has to overcome in September alone to avoid becoming insolvent are massive indeed: the EU/IMF must be convinced to release the next tranche of financing by the end of September, despite the consolidation goals being missed; the new (2nd) bail-out for Greece must still be ratified by the parliaments of the EU partners, along with the expanded competencies of the EFSF. There is a serious risk that this will not proceed according to plans. Fears will prevail in the coming days and months at least. With this latest escalation, EUR/USD has already hit our December target 1.35, and the low point in this move has probably not been reached yet. Countermoves are possible at any time, but should probably only offer opportunities for selling EUR/USD, which will probably (during September) test 1.30 (and this assumes a relatively benign scenario in which Greece does not (yet) have to restructure and all of the necessary resolutions are passed). Another downside risk for EUR/USD could come in the form of the US data this Friday (and in Q4): if the data show that a recession can be avoided in the USA, the Eurozone’s prospects will look even worse.

 

EUR/PLN

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The tricky lag LUCIAN CROITORU Adviser to the Governor - BANCA NAŢIONALĂ A ROMÂNIEI Lucian Croitoru, Adviser on monetary policy issues to the National Bank of Romania Governor, talks about the NBR’s next moves and explains why the decrease ofthe policy rate hasn’t been reflected into lower interest rates on bank loans. mai mult... The turnaround CRISTIAN SPORIS Secretar de Stat - MINISTERUL ECONOMIEI ŞI FINANŢELOR Cristian Sporis, Secretary of State at the Ministry of Public Finance, in charge with the national treasury and public debt, explains how the state managed to borrow money at the lowest costs in the last seven years and how it turned from a clear market taker into a player with a strong position on the market. mai mult...