Equity Weekly. Previews - 4Q 2010 results

11 Februarie 2011

RAIFFEISEN CAPITAL & INVESTMENT S.A.

 

Monday, 14/02/11

BRD-GSG

We expect a rebound in BRD-GSG's unconsolidated RAS net profit on both a quarterly and a yearly basis, especially since 3Q 10 and 4Q 09 were the weakest in the bank's recent history.

Our expectations of a flat loan portfolio qoq and a lower margin points to a decrease of net interest income.

We see F&C to have remained under pressure in 4Q 10 and trading income to come in somewhat higher on a quarterly basis.

Non-interest expenses should be lower than a year ago mainly due to general expenses, but we expect some pressure from salaries costs.

We foresee risk costs to remain elevated, but below the record level from 3Q 10, mainly due to a lower valuation of the collateral.

We expect BRD-GSG to pay a dividend of RON 0.22 per share out of the 2010 net profit.

Hrvatski Telekom

We expect the top line to decline due to a drop in mobile revenues, which is partially caused by MTR cuts in January last year. On the other hand, we foresee wireline revenues to drop only moderately due to growth in internet revenues and because of the acquisition of the IT company Combis from May last year.

We reckon with a decline in staff costs despite the Combis acquisition because 4Q 09 was impacted by a one-off charge of HRK 152 mn. Therefore we expect a higher EBITDA margin also supported by capitalization of some merchandise (from September 2010) in 4Q 10 vs. 4Q 09.

Hrvatski Telekom is to propose a dividend of HRK 32 per share for FY 10.

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