Poland – The worsening global market sentiment and our estimates for the EUR/PLN exchange rate by the end of Q1 led us to stick to our “neutral” recommendation for Polish bonds.
Hungary – The successful USD-bond issuance means that investors still have trust in countries with elevated debt levels – such as Hungary and Greece – and are seeking out their riskier assets with high risk premia. Nevertheless, we expect the current positive sentiment towards Hungary to deteriorate towards the second half of 2010. This will occur at the same time as the worsening of the country’s public finances, as we expect the 3.8% deficit target for this year to be drastically overshot.
Czech Republic – Next Thursday the Czech National Bank will hold its regular monetary policy board meeting. Although no change of the key rate is expected, the meeting will still be in the center of market interest. The statement after the meeting could be important as some of the board members started to speak about future interest rate hikes in recent weeks.
OPINII
