Bond Markets Outlook

13 Noiembrie 2009

RAIFFEISEN BANK S.A.

 

Highlights

� Poland - Polish bond yields did not move much during the past week in spite of the rising appetite for risky assets, which was reflected by the EUR/PLN exchange rate falling towards 4.10. The better than expected C/A data were supportive for the zloty and rather neutral for bonds.

� Hungary - Inflation figures for October (4.7% yoy) offered a downside surprise for the fourth month in a row. The lower-than-expected CPI points to another 50bp rate cut at the monetary council's next rate setting meeting (23 November). Q3 GDP disappointed at -7.2 % yoy, analysts had hoped for a bigger improvement from the -7.5 % in Q2.

� Czech Republic - According to the flash estimate the Czech GDP contracted by 4.1% yoy in the third quarter 2009. In a quarter-on-quarter comparison the Czech economy grew by 0.3% in Q2 and by 0.8% in Q3. Thus, the flash estimate confirms that the recession ended in the second quarter.

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